| 近年我国震后趋势判定与后续强震预测研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁鉴海,张国民,余素荣,李丽.近年我国震后趋势判定与后续强震预测研究进展[J].华南地震,1999,19(1):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁鉴海 张国民 余素荣 李丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局分析预报中心,北京,100036 |
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| 摘 要： | 详细论述了近年来我国在震后趋势判定与后续强震预测研究中取得的重要进展：（１）对近年发生的重大社会影响的一系列６级以上强震的震后趋势后判断迅速，正确，取得了突出的社会减灾实效；（２）对中强地震发生后后续强震的短临预报取得明显进展，曾较成功地预报１９９５年７月１２日孟连西７．３级强震以及１９９７年４月伽师４次６级以上强震；（３）在国外大震现场的国际合作了开创了震后趋势判定的成功范例；（４）后续强震预测
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 震后趋势判定 后续强震预测 技术思路 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998-06-07 |
New progress in study on post-seismic tendency determination and prediction for following strong shocks in recent years |
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| Ding Jianhai,Zhang Guomin,Yu Surong,Li Li.New progress in study on post-seismic tendency determination and prediction for following strong shocks in recent years[J].South China Journal of Seismology,1999,19(1):1-7. |
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| Authors: | Ding Jianhai Zhang Guomin Yu Surong Li Li |
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| Institution: | Ding Jianhai;(Center for Analysis and
Prediction,CSB |
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| Abstract: | Important development has been achieved in recent years to do post - seismic tendency determination and the prediction for following strong shocks determination; (1) The post - seismic tendency determination after some M = 6 earthquakes that influenced the society significantly is done rapidly and exactly, which really reduced foe hazard after strong shocks; (2) Short - term to impending earthquake prediction for following strong shocks after moderate to strong earthquakes is improved. The successful cases for earthquake prediction include Menglian earthquake (July. 12, 1995, Ms7.3 ) and the 4 Jiashi earthquakes (April, 1997, M >6); (3) Post - seismic tendency determination in foreign countries has shown good results and Carried out a way for collaboration with foreign scientists in the field work; (4) The scientific bases, the observation bases and the technical ideas for the development in earthquake prediction has been described in detail. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Post - seismic tendency determination Prediction for following strong shocks Technical ideas |
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