| 武汉市海外旅游客源市场的时空动态分析 |
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| 引用本文： | LI Ling,张贞冰.武汉市海外旅游客源市场的时空动态分析[J].世界地理研究,2008,17(2):110-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | LI Ling 张贞冰 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北大学资源与环境学院,武汉,430062 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对武汉市海外旅游客源市场的时序和空间数据,揭示出海外旅游客源市场发展波动明显,受国内外旅游业环境影响剧烈,客源市场空间分布不均,主要集中于港澳台地区、美国和日本;构建相应指标体系,利用SPSS主成份分析法,揭示出海外旅游客源市场的主要影响因子：人均可自由支配收入、与武汉市的空间距离以及客源地与我国的文化差异。利用灰色模型预测,建立GM（1,1）模型探讨了武汉市海外旅游客源市场的发展趋势：第一、二、三等级市场缓慢发展;第四等级市场发展速度将加快。
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| 关 键 词： | 时空动态 海外旅游客源市场 灰色预测 SPSS分析 武汉市 |
The Space-Time Dynamic Analysis on Wuhan Overseas Tourist Market |
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| LI Ling,ZHANG Zheng-bing.The Space-Time Dynamic Analysis on Wuhan Overseas Tourist Market[J].World Regional Studies,2008,17(2):110-120. |
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| Authors: | LI Ling ZHANG Zheng-bing |
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| Institution: | LI Ling, ZHANG Zheng-bing (1. Tourism Department Business School Hubei University, Wuhan 630062; 2. Resources and environment School Hubei University, Wuhan 630062) |
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| Abstract: | Basing on the timing and spatial data, of it Wuhan overseas tourist market reveals that the development of overseas tourist market fluctuations is obvious, greatly influenced by domestic and international tourism environment. And the distribution of space tourist market is unever, focusing on Hong Kong, Macao , Taiwan , the United States and Japan. Establishing the corresponding index system, use SPSS component analysis to reveal that the main influencing factors of the overseas tourist market： people average incomes, the distance from Wuhan and cultural differences. Using gray predicting mode, it establishes GM （1, 1） model to predic, t the development trends of the overseas tourists market in Wuhan City. The first, the second and the third grade of market develop slowly, and the development of the fourth grade market will speed up |
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| Keywords: | space-time dynamics analysis overseas tourist market grey prediction SPSS analysis Wuhan City |
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