| 斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄润秋,许强.斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型[J].山地学报,1997(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄润秋 许强 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工学院工程地质研究所!成都 610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年科学基金!（49525204），霍英东基金1996年度资助项目． |
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| 摘 要： | 斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．
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| 关 键 词： | 斜坡失稳 协同学 预测模型 滑坡 |
SYNERGETIC PREDICTION MODEL OF SLOPE INSTABILITY |
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| Huang Runqiu, Xu Qiang.SYNERGETIC PREDICTION MODEL OF SLOPE INSTABILITY[J].Journal of Mountain Research,1997(1). |
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| Authors: | Huang Runqiu Xu Qiang |
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| Institution: | Chengdu Institute of Technoloqy Chengdu 610059 |
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| Abstract: | From slight deformation to large deformation even to sliding, the evolution cause of slope is generally resulted by synergetic interactions of all sub-systems which consist of slopes. In this paper,according to synergetic theory, the evolution of slope systems is described in the following form: in which u is called as slow varible, and s is named as fast varible. Applying method of adiabatic elimination,fast varible can be replaced with slow varible. So the following form is given by: This is evolution equation of slope systems. Solving the above equation, and using to AGO (Accumulated generating operation) of grey theory, the predictive time of landslide is obtained as following: where t0 is initial number of monitoring time series,u(0) is the initial monitoring data. The checked results to some landslide examples showed that its predictive accuracy is very high, and it can be applied to short-term or impending forecasting of landslides. |
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| Keywords: | slope instability synergetics predicting model landslide |
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