Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios |
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| Institution: | 1. Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands;1. Environmental Geography group, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Sustainability and Climate Change program, European Forest Institute, Yliopistokatu 6, 80100, Joensuu, Finland;3. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Environmental Geography Group, VU University Amsterdam, de Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012, Bern, Switzerland;3. Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 10, 3012, Bern, Switzerland;4. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Environmental Geography group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Environmental Geography, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;3. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;4. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;5. Institute of Landscape Ecology SAS, Akademická 2, 949 01 Nitra, Slovakia;6. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark,;1. Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. University of the Aegean, Department of Geography, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece;3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Research Unit Landscape Dynamics, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies & Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands;2. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Many global land change scenarios are driven by demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel. However, novel demands for other ecosystem services give rise to nexus issues and can lead to different land system changes. In this paper we explore the effects of including multiple different demands in land change scenarios. Our reference scenario is driven by demands for crop production, ruminant livestock production, and provisioning of built-up area. We then compare two alternative scenarios with additional demands for terrestrial carbon storage and biodiversity protection, respectively. These scenarios represent possible implementations of globally agreed policy targets. The simulated land system change scenarios are compared in terms of changes in cropland intensity and area, as well as tree and grassland area changes. We find that the carbon and biodiversity scenarios generally result in greater intensification and less expansion of cropland, with the biodiversity scenario showing a stronger intensification effect. However, the impact of setting the targets impacts different world regions in different ways. Overall, both scenarios result in a larger tree area compared to the reference scenario, while the carbon scenario also yields more grassland area. The land systems simulated while accounting for these additional demand types show strong patterns of specialization and spatial segregation in the provisioning of goods and services in different world regions. Our results indicate the relevance of including demands for multiple different goods and services in global land change assessments. |
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| Keywords: | Agricultural intensification Land use and land cover Land-change model Biodiversity Terrestrial carbon Ecosystem services |
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