Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems |
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| Authors: | Antti Pulkkinen Michael Hesse Shahid Habib Luke Van der Zel Ben Damsky Fritz Policelli David Fugate William Jacobs Elizabeth Creamer |
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| Institution: | (1) University of Maryland, Baltimore County, MD, USA;(2) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA;(3) Electric Power Research Institute, Charlotte, NC, USA;(4) Electric Research, Cabot, PA, USA;(5) SSAI Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, USA |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable
of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth
system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based
forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user,
the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing
information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe
storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting
system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis
of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of
the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only
after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically
induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield
will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations. |
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