| 多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算 |
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| 引用本文： | 逯义军,刘德辅,谢波涛,姜云鹏.多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2007,37(3):497-502,496. |
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| 作者姓名： | 逯义军 刘德辅 谢波涛 姜云鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学海洋防灾研究所,山东,青岛,266003 |
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| 摘 要： | 首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。
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| 关 键 词： | 多维联合概率 设计洪水 随机模拟方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-5174（2007）03-497-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-092006-07-20 |
Calculation of Design Flood for the Three Gorges Project |
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| LU Yi-Jun,LIU De-Fu,XIE Bo-Tao,JANG Yun-Peng.Calculation of Design Flood for the Three Gorges Project[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2007,37(3):497-502,496. |
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| Authors: | LU Yi-Jun LIU De-Fu XIE Bo-Tao JANG Yun-Peng |
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| Institution: | Disaster Prevention Researdn Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China |
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| Abstract: | Multivariable joint probability theory is applied to calculate design floods for the Three Gorges dam for the first time.And the stochastic simulation technique is used to calculate the four-variable joint probability distribution.Different combinations and the most adverse combination of the major tributaries' floods are obtained and corresponding design flood values for different joint return periods are calculated.The results can be used in risk analysis and flood control for this project. |
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| Keywords: | multivariable joint probability design flood stochastic simulation technique |
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