| 包头市气候变化耗散结构特征及其混沌行为的可预报性 |
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| 引用本文： | 王涵正,邱卫东,李成磊,杨荣标.包头市气候变化耗散结构特征及其混沌行为的可预报性[J].内蒙古气象,2011(5):8-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王涵正 邱卫东 李成磊 杨荣标 |
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| 作者单位： | 包头市气象局,内蒙古包头,014030 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对包头地区1971—2000年整编资料的计算,分析出包头市近30a的气候变化特征,利用统计学方法分析和解释了包头地区气候变化的突变现象,得出气候突变对包头地区引起的气温和降水的影响,简要分析了气候突变后的稳定性及其耗散结构特征,利用包头月平均气温的时间序列,求得包头地区吸引子的维数,表明了包头地区气候具有的混沌行为。通过累积分布函数对包头地区混沌行为做出定量估计,求出了系统混沌的定量程度,找到了包头地区可以预报天气的平均时间尺度。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候突变 耗散结构 吸引子 混沌行为 |
The Predictability of Dissipative Structure Characteristics and Chaos Behavior of Climatic Change in Baotou City |
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| Authors: | Wang Hanzheng Qiu Weidong Ii Chenglei Yang Rongbiao |
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| Institution: | Wang Hanzheng,Qiu Weidong,Ii Chenglei,Yang Rongbiao (Baotou Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Baotou 014030) |
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| Abstract: | The climatic change characteristics was analyzed by calculating thirty years reorganize data in Baotou,the mutation phenomenon was analyzed and explained by statistics method,the influence of the climate mutation on temperature and precipitation was acquired,the stability and dissipative structure characteristics was analyzed after climatic mutation,the dimension of attractor in Baotou was calculated using time series of monthly average temperature,the result showed that the climate had chaos action.The cha... |
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| Keywords: | climate mutation dissipative structure attractor chaos action |
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