Application of Time-Series Model to Predict Groundwater Dynamic in Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China |
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| Authors: | LUAN Zhaoqing LIU Guihua YAN Baixing |
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| Institution: | (Key Laboratory of wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130012, Jilin, P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | To study the groundwater dynamic in the typical region of Sanjiang Plain,long-term groundwater level observation data in the Honghe State Farm were collected and analyzed in this paper.The seasonal and long-term groundwater dynamic was explored.From 1996 to 2008,groundwater level kept declining due to intensive exploitation of groundwater resources for rice irrigation.A decline of nearly 5 m was found for almost all the monitoring wells.A time-series method was established to model the groundwater dynamic.Modeled results by time-series model showed that the groundwater level in this region would keep declining according to the current exploitation intensity.A total dropdown of 1.07 m would occur from 2009 to 2012.Time-series model can be used to model and forecast the groundwater dynamic with high accuracy.Measures including control on groundwater exploitation amount and application of water saving irrigation technique should be taken to prevent the continuing declining of groundwater in the Sanjiang Plain. |
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| Keywords: | groundwater dynamic long-term trend seasonal ARMA exponential model Sanjiang Plain |
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