| 焦作市旅游景区最低气温预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 牛广山,李秋元,李艳红,李俊杰,张珍,肖杰,.焦作市旅游景区最低气温预报方法[J].气象与环境科学,2009,32(4):51-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 牛广山 李秋元 李艳红 李俊杰 张珍 肖杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 焦作市气象局,河南,焦作,454003 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2007年10月-2008年9月ECMWF资料和设立在4个景区(修武县的云台山、青龙峡,博爱县的青天河,沁阳市的神农山)的四要素气象站采集的气温数据,以及焦作市、修武县、博爱县、沁阳市4个观测站的气温数据,应用温度方程理论,建立焦作市、修武县、博爱县和沁阳市的站点最低气温预报方程,再根据景区内最低气温与所在县(市)局观测站的逐月气温距平,利用二次迭代法修正最低气温预报方程,从而得出4个景区的最低气温预报方法.方程的预报结果与实际值误差绝对值都在3.0 ℃以内,平均误差为0.9 ℃.
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| 关 键 词： | 多元回归 旅游景区预报 最低气温 二次迭代 订正 |
Lowest Temperature Prediction Method of Jiaozuo Tourism Scenic Areas |
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| Niu Guangshan; Li Qiuyuan; Li Yanhong; Li Junjie; Zhang Zhen; Xiao Jie.Lowest Temperature Prediction Method of Jiaozuo Tourism Scenic Areas[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2009,32(4):51-54. |
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| Authors: | Niu Guangshan; Li Qiuyuan; Li Yanhong; Li Junjie; Zhang Zhen; Xiao Jie |
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| Institution: | Jiaozuo Meteorological Office; Jiaozuo 454003; China |
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| Abstract: | Using ECMWF material in October 2007-October 2008 and the four elements of weather station gathering temperature data which established on four scenic areas(Xiuwu county s Yuntaishan and Qinglongxia,Bo ai county s Qingtianhe;Qinyang s Shennongshan),and unifies Jiaozuo,Xiuwu county,Bo ai county and the Qinyang four observation stations temperature data.We apply temperature equation theory,establish the lowest temperature forecast equation of Jiaozuo,Xiuwu county,Bo ai county and Qinyang.Again according to th... |
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| Keywords: | multiple regression tourist scenic zone forecast lowest temperature secondary iteration reduction |
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