| 东海“桑吉”轮事故溢油污染的长期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹丽萍,张敏,张远凌,乔方利.东海“桑吉”轮事故溢油污染的长期预测[J].海洋学报(英文版),2018,37(3):69-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹丽萍 张敏 张远凌 乔方利 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室,青岛 266061,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室,青岛 266061;国家海洋局数据分析与应用重点实验室, 青岛 266061,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室,青岛 266061;国家海洋局数据分析与应用重点实验室, 青岛 266061,国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛 266061;青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛 266237;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室,青岛 266061 |
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| 基金项目： | The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 41506044; the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1606405; the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract No. GASI-IPOVAI-05; the International Cooperation Project on the China-Australia Research Centre for Maritime Engineering of Ministry of Science and Technology, China under contract No. 2016YFE0101400; the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology through the Transparency Program of Pacific Ocean-South China Sea-Indian Ocean under contract No. 2015ASKJ01. |
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| 摘 要： | “桑吉”轮事故溢出的凝析油和燃料油对漂油途经海域的海洋生态会产生长期灾害性影响。对溢油污染水体的漂移轨迹和污染程度及范围的预测可为海洋环境保护及污染评估提供重要基础信息。基于国家海洋局第一海洋研究所研发的海洋环境业务化预报系统，本研究较精确预测了“桑吉”轮事故发生后至沉船位置的漂移轨迹；继而利用拉格朗日粒子追踪法预测了撞船后60天内的油粒子漂流轨迹。结果表明，沉船点附近的溢油主要向东北方向输运，大部分油粒子进入西边界强流黑潮并在黑潮带动下迅速进入黑潮延伸体海域。基于预报系统2009-2017年历史表层海流资料，对溢油影响程度和范围进行了风险概率分析，结果显示受溢油影响最大的区域为沉船点东北方向海域。
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| 关 键 词： | 东海“桑吉”轮事故 长期预测 溢油 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/1/23 0:00:00 |
The long-term prediction of the oil-contaminated water from the Sanchi collision in the East China Sea |
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| YIN Liping,ZHANG Min,ZHANG Yuanling and QIAO Fangli.The long-term prediction of the oil-contaminated water from the Sanchi collision in the East China Sea[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2018,37(3):69-72. |
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| Authors: | YIN Liping ZHANG Min ZHANG Yuanling and QIAO Fangli |
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| Institution: | The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modelling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China,The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modelling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Applications, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China,The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modelling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Applications, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China and The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modelling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China |
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| Abstract: | The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to 2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location. |
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| Keywords: | Sanchi collision long-term prediction oil spill |
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