Special points in 11-year variations in the latitudinal characteristics of sunspot activity |
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| Authors: | E V Miletsky Yu A Nagovitsyn |
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| Institution: | 1. Central Astronomical (Pulkovo) Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pulkovskoe sh. 65, St. Petersburg, 196140, Russia
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| Abstract: | It has been indicated that special moments (turning points), when certain characteristics of the latitudinal (equatorward) drift of the sunspot drift zone suddenly change, exist in each 11-year solar cycle. The moment when a sunspot formation low-latitude boundary minimum (T2), coordinated in time with the end of a polar magnetic field polarity reversal, exists has a special place among these points. A conclusion has been drawn that it is impossible to reconstruct polarity reversal moments in the past based on information about turning points T2. The average velocities of the latitudinal drift of the minimal, average, and maximal sunspot group latitudes have been calculated. It has been indicated that the closeness of the relationship between the first two velocities and the maximal activity amplitudes in the cycles differ substantially for the first (before point T2) and second (after point T2) cycle parts. The corresponding values of the correlation coefficients increase substantially in the second cycle (after point T2). It has been established that a relationship exists between some velocities calculated in these cycles and the activity amplitudes at maximums of the next cycles. A model for predicting future cycle maximums has been constructed based on this conclusion. The probable average annual Wolf number at a maximum of cycle 24 has been determined (W(24) = 93). |
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