Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario |
| |
| Authors: | ,
CHEN Huo-Po
,
SUN Jian-Qi
,
CHEN Xiao-Li |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2. Environmental Development Center of Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100029, China |
| |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model (RegCM3) under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics (in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent) in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase. |
| |
| Keywords: | standardized precipitation index drought/flood projection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气和海洋科学快报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气和海洋科学快报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
