Monthly karstic spring flow forecasting using a sequential gaussian simulation technique |
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| Authors: | Seiyed Mossa Hosseini Najmeh Mahjouri Sajjad Bagheri |
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| Institution: | 1. Natural Geography Department, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6465, Tehran, Iran
2. Faculty of Civil Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
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| Abstract: | Analyzing groundwater hydrologic equations related to karstic aquifers and spring hydrograph simulation have become the focus of many researches. Having double or triple porosity structure, mixed flow nature, and varying conduit permeability have made these formations become complex heterogenic systems with great temporal and spatial hydrodynamic variability. In this paper, a conditional sequential gaussian simulation (SGS) is used to simulate monthly flow data of five karstic springs with different hydrogeological properties, located in Zagros Mountain Chain, in western Iran. To evaluate the performance of the SGS algorithm, the results are compared with those of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the SGS model in simulation of monthly flows compared to the ARIMA model. They also show the suitability of this model for handling uncertainty associated with karstic spring flows through generation of several equally probable stochastic realizations. |
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