| 太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献 |
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| 引用本文： | 王岱,孙银川,游庆龙.太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献[J].气候变化研究进展,2020,16(1):70-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王岱 孙银川 游庆龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川 750002;宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川 750002;南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁夏自然科学基金项目(2019AAC03252);宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2016KJHM129);中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室指令性项目(CAMP-201905) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1961—2013年中国台站的均一化气温数据、NOAA月平均海温资料和CMIP5气候模式数据,利用气候统计手段,定量分析太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献。结果表明：PDO的年代际序列与年代际滤波后的最低气温场在全国大部分地区呈显著正相关,即PDO负位相时中国冬季最低气温偏低,反之偏高。2006年后中国冬季最低气温变暖减缓,造成这一现象的主要原因是自然变率起到的降温作用,而自然变率又主要由PDO起主导作用,约占自然变率贡献的40%左右。PDO对温度的贡献呈现出明显的年代际变化,在变暖减缓期对升温有明显的负贡献,且负贡献逐渐增大至超过50%。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国区域 太平洋年代际振荡(PDO) 最低气温 年代际变化 贡献 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-04-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-07-22 |
Contribution of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to interdecadal variability of winter minimum temperature in China |
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| WANG Dai,SUN Yin-Chuan,YOU Qing-Long.Contribution of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to interdecadal variability of winter minimum temperature in China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2020,16(1):70-77. |
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| Authors: | WANG Dai SUN Yin-Chuan YOU Qing-Long |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China2 Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, China3 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China; |
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| Abstract: | Based on homogeneity-adjusted temperature data of meteorological stations in China, NOAA monthly mean sea temperature data, and CMIP5 climate model data from 1961 to 2013, the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) to the interdecadal variability of China’s winter minimum temperature was quantitatively analyzed by using climatic statistic methods. Results show that the interdecadal sequence of PDO has significant positive correlation with minimum temperature pattern of decadal filtering at most areas in China, winter minimum temperature is low when PDO is in negative phase, while conversely is high. The phenomenon of hiatus of winter minimum temperature after 2006, is mainly caused by cooling effect of natural variability, in which PDO plays a leading role, accounting for about 40% of natural variability contribution. The contribution of PDO to temperature presents an obvious interdecadal change. PDO has negative contribution to warming, and gradually increase to exceed 50% during 2006-2013. |
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| Keywords: | China area Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) Minimum temperature Interdecadal variability Contribution |
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