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| 气候变化的“地心说”——关于短期气候预测的新思维 | |
| 引用本文： | 汤懋苍,高晓清.气候变化的“地心说”——关于短期气候预测的新思维[J].地球科学进展,1995,10(1):47-56. |
| 作者姓名： | 汤懋苍 高晓清 |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院兰州高原大气物理研究所 |
| 摘 要： | 通过对短期气候观测研究历史的回顾，提出了建立以“地圈”（包括地壳、地幔、地核）为主体的地气耦合模式，用来作为预测短期气候变化的方法。地球系统各子系统中，地圈的质量是水圈的１０＾３倍，是气圈的１０＾６倍，是生物圈的１０＾８倍。亦即整个地球系统中９９％以上的质量集中在地圈中。“地圈”（特别是岩石圈）存在着各种时间尺度的变化，所有这些变化必然影响到大气圈。对大气中≤１０＾－２年的波动，大气圈本身的能耗水 |
| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 地球系统 地气耦合 短期气候预测 |
"GEOCENTRIC THEORY" OF CLIMATE CHANGE -a New Perspective on Short-term Climate Change |
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| Change Tang Maocang,Gao Xiaoqing."GEOCENTRIC THEORY" OF CLIMATE CHANGE -a New Perspective on Short-term Climate Change[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,1995,10(1):47-56. | |
| Authors: | Change Tang Maocang Gao Xiaoqing |
| Institution: | Lanzhou Institute of Plateau Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 |
| Abstract: | After reviewing the history of short-term climate prediction study, the paper proposed a new method for predicting short-term climate change by using Earth-atmosphere coupled model which is centered in geosphere (including crust, mantle and core). In sub-systems of Earth-system, geosphere is 103 times in quality of hydrosphere, 106 times of atmosphere, 108 times of biosphere. Geosphere is 99. 9% in quality of all sub-systerns of Earth-system. There are various time scale vibrations in geosphere (especially in lithosphere).All these vibrations affect atmosphere inevitably. For the changes of time scale shorter than 10-2 years in atmosphere, the rate of energy dissipation of atmosphere is much more bigger than the rate of energy supplying from lithosphere to atmosphere. So, in these time scales, atmosphere may be considered as an isolated system approximately. But for 10-1~101 years short-term climate change, does geosphere act as dominate factor? The paper had given some results to show that the basic cause of short-term(10-1~101 years) climate change is in the solid Earth, and atmosphere is in response state. And climate change is the reflection of change of Earth-system in atmosphere. It is called "geocentric theory" of climate change. In order to construct a new prediction system based on this theory. Three proposals had been suggested, 1)enlarging data observating and collecting system;2)developing a new Earth-atmosphere coupled model based on mantle dynamics as main part;3)keeping the unity of theory and practice, deepening our understanding, finally, developing unmerical model. |
| Keywords: | Short-term climate change Earth-system Earth-atmosphere coupling |
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