Trading more food: Implications for land use,greenhouse gas emissions,and the food system |
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| Authors: | Christoph Schmitz Anne Biewald Hermann Lotze-Campen Alexander Popp Jan Philipp Dietrich Benjamin Bodirsky Michael Krause Isabelle Weindl |
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| Institution: | 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;2. Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Humboldt University, 10115 Berlin, Germany;3. Department of Physics, Humboldt University, 12489 Berlin, Germany;4. Economics of Climate Change, Technical University Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany |
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| Abstract: | The volume of agricultural trade increased by more than ten times throughout the past six decades and is likely to continue with high rates in the future. Thereby, it largely affects environment and climate. We analyse future trade scenarios covering the period of 2005–2045 by evaluating economic and environmental effects using the global land-use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”). This is the first trade study using spatially explicit mapping of land use patterns and greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on three scenarios: the reference scenario fixes current trade patterns, the policy scenario follows a historically derived liberalisation pathway, and the liberalisation scenario assumes a path, which ends with full trade liberalisation in 2045.Further trade liberalisation leads to lower global costs of food. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for cereals and oil crops and China for livestock products will export more. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Deforestation, mainly in Latin America, leads to significant amounts of additional carbon emissions due to trade liberalisation. Non-CO2 emissions will mostly shift to China due to comparative advantages in livestock production and rising livestock demand in the region. Overall, further trade liberalisation leads to higher economic benefits at the expense of environment and climate, if no other regulations are put in place. |
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