Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use |
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| Authors: | Detlef P van Vuuren Marcel TJ Kok Bastien Girod Paul L Lucas Bert de Vries |
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| Institution: | 1. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands;2. Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper. |
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