Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate? |
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| Authors: | Gorka Merino Manuel Barange Julia L Blanchard James Harle Robert Holmes Icarus Allen Edward H Allison Marie Caroline Badjeck Nicholas K Dulvy Jason Holt Simon Jennings Christian Mullon Lynda D Rodwell |
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| Institution: | 1. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK;2. Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Alfred Denny Building, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK;3. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool L3 5DA, UK;4. The WorldFish Center, GPO Box 500, Penang, Malaysia;5. Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada;6. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR7, 4TJ, UK;7. Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33, 0HT, UK;8. Unité de Recherche Ecosystèmes Marins Exploités, Avenue Jean Monnet, 34200, Séte, France;9. School of Marine Science and Engineering, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK |
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| Abstract: | Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products. |
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