Response of snow cover and runoff to climate change in high Alpine catchments of Eastern Switzerland |
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| Institution: | 1. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, CH-7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland;2. CRYOS School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland;1. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastr. 11, 7260, Davos, Switzerland;2. Professor of Hydrology and Micrometeorology, Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0328, U.S.A.;1. Department of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Systems, University of Florence, via San Bonaventura 13, 50145 Florence-Firenze, Italy;2. Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, viale dell’Università 16, 35020 Legnaro (PD), Italy;3. Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland;1. Centre d’Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO), UPS/CNRS/IRD/CNES, Toulouse, France;2. National Council for Scientific Research/Remote Sensing Center (CNRS/RSC), Beirut, Lebanon;3. Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC), Department of Geoenvironmental Processes and Global Change, Zaragoza, Spain;1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;3. Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinyuan 835800, China;4. Meteorological and Climatological Research Department, Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium;5. CAS Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Urumqi 830011, China;6. Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium;1. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Middelthunsgate 29, P.O. Box 5091, Majorstua, N-0301 Oslo, Norway;2. Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany |
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| Abstract: | A model study on the impact of climate change on snow cover and runoff has been conducted for the Swiss Canton of Graubünden. The model Alpine3D has been forced with the data from 35 Automatic Weather Stations in order to investigate snow and runoff dynamics for the current climate. The data set has then been modified to reflect climate change as predicted for the 2021–2050 and 2070–2095 periods from an ensemble of regional climate models.The predicted changes in snow cover will be moderate for 2021–2050 and become drastic in the second half of the century. Towards the end of the century the snow cover changes will roughly be equivalent to an elevation shift of 800 m. Seasonal snow water equivalents will decrease by one to two thirds and snow seasons will be shortened by five to nine weeks in 2095.Small, higher elevation catchments will show more winter runoff, earlier spring melt peaks and reduced summer runoff. Where glacierized areas exist, the transitional increase in glacier melt will initially offset losses from snow melt. Larger catchments, which reach lower elevations will show much smaller changes since they are already dominated by summer precipitation. |
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