Future runoff from a partly glacierized watershed in Central Switzerland: A two-model approach |
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| Institution: | 1. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland;2. Geological Institute, ETH Zurich, Sonnegstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;3. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastr. 11, 7260, Davos, Switzerland;2. Professor of Hydrology and Micrometeorology, Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0328, U.S.A.;1. Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia;2. National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia;3. Watermark Numerical Computing, 336 Cliveden Avenue, Corinda, QLD 4075, Australia;1. East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;3. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;1. School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private bag 37, TAS 7001, Hobart, Australia;2. LEGOS/UMR 5566, Université Paul Sabatier/OMP, CNRS, 14 rue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France;3. GET/UMR 5533, Université Paul Sabatier/OMP, 14 rue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France;1. University of Tübingen, Center for Applied Geoscience, Hölderlinstr. 12, 72074 Tübingen, Germany;2. Water and Earth System Science (WESS) Competence Cluster, c/o University of Tübingen, Hölderlinstr. 12, 72074 Tübingen, Germany;1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;2. Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;3. Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029 China |
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| Abstract: | We present a comprehensive hydrological modeling study in the drainage area of a hydropower reservoir in central Switzerland. To investigate the response of this 95 km2 alpine watershed to a changing climate, we used both a conceptual and a physically based hydrological model approach. The multi-model approach enabled detailed insights into the uncertainties associated with model projections of future runoff based on climate scenarios. Both hydrological models consistently predicted changes of the seasonal runoff dynamics, including the timing of snowmelt and peak-flow in summer as well as the future spread between high and low flow years. However the models disagreed regarding the evolution of glacier melt rates thus leading to a considerable difference in predicted annual runoff figures. The findings suggest that snow-glacier feedbacks require particular attention when predicting future runoff from glacio-nival watersheds. |
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