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| 南通市建设用地扩张情景模拟与景观生态效应 | |
| 引用本文： | 杨清可,段学军,金志丰,王磊.南通市建设用地扩张情景模拟与景观生态效应[J].地理科学,2017,37(4):528-536. |
| 作者姓名： | 杨清可 段学军 金志丰 王磊 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏 南京 210008 2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049 3. 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210008 4. 江苏省土地勘测规划院,江苏 南京 210024 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（41601169）资助 |
| 摘 要： | 选择城镇化进程快速、区位条件特殊的南通市作为案例,集成CLUE-S模型与Auto-logistic回归模型构建适合不同情景的建设用地扩张的动态分布模型。通过1987年以来遥感影像获取的4个时段的南通市建设用地增长时空特征分析提取先验知识规则,模拟在基准、经济发展、生态保护等情景下建设用地增长与空间布局,通过景观学知识分析其空间扩张的生态效应。结果表明,1987年以来,南通市建设用地扩张剧烈,空间上围绕城区和乡镇中心快速蔓延,呈现“轴线增长-内部填充”交替的周期性波动规律。Kappa系数与模拟正确率（PCM）显示,构建的复合集成模型具有较高的可靠性,能够应用于对未来建设用地空间分布的模拟。模拟结果显示未来建设用地扩张集中在城镇周边,其中在经济发展情景下还有向东部沿海滩涂扩展的趋势。由于扩张剧烈,在建设用地集中区呈现出融合成更大面积分布区的现象。建设用地空间扩张的斑块密度和景观形状指数均较高,景观格局趋于不稳定,破碎化相对严重。 |
| 关 键 词： | 建设用地扩张 空间模拟 景观生态效应 南通市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-04-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-06-22 |
Spatial Scenario Simulation and Landscape Ecological Effect Based on Construction Land Expansion of Nantong City |
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| Qingke Yang,Xuejun Duan,Zhifeng Jin,lei Wang.Spatial Scenario Simulation and Landscape Ecological Effect Based on Construction Land Expansion of Nantong City[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(4):528-536. | |
| Authors: | Qingke Yang Xuejun Duan Zhifeng Jin lei Wang |
| Institution: | 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China 4. Jiangsu Institute of Land Surveying and Planning, Nanjing 210024, Jiangsu, China |
| Abstract: | Modeling and scenario analysis are the core content of the research on the spatial expansion of construction land. On account of the rapid urbanization process and the special geographical position, Nantong is chosen as the study case in this paper. We employ the hybrid model of CLUE-S and Auto-logistic regression to project the likelihood map of land use distribution, and then simulate the dynamic distribution of the expansion of construction land. We acquire a series of knowledge rules by analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of construction land expansion from four time periods of remote sensing images since 1987. The future expansion of construction land under different cenarios is then simulated based on the baseline model, economic development model, ecological conservation model. Through the landscape ecology knowledge we analyze the ecological environment effect of construction land expansion under different scenarios. Key results emerge: since 1987, the expansion of construction land in Nantong has been rapid, which is spreading intensely around the city and the town center on the space. It’s presented that the alternate rule of cyclical fluctuations in the form of ‘axis growth—interior filled’. At the meanwhile, the Kappa and PCM coefficients also show that the hybrid model has high reliability and can be applied to the simulation of the spatial distribution of construction land in the future. The simulation results declare that the expansion of construction land is concentrated in the urban area and towns around, and there is an obvious expansion trend towards the east coast under the economic development scenario. Due to the intense expansion, it’s very obvious that the spatial pattern tends to merge into the larger districts in the concentration area of construction land. The patch density and landscape shape index of the construction land expansion are both high, the landscape pattern tends to be unstable, and the fragmentation is also relatively severe. Therefore, not only control the amount of construction land expansion in the future land use, but also optimize the spatial landscape pattern, which can provide scientific basis for land intensive use, urban growth boundary control and ecosystem management of Nantong City. |
| Keywords: | construction land expansion spatial simulation landscape ecological effect Nantong City |
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