| 降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李芳,梅红波,王伟森,李正杰.降雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以云南省红河州监测示范区为例[J].地球科学,2017,42(9):1637-1646. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李芳 梅红波 王伟森 李正杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地质大学资源学院, 湖北武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省级地质灾害防治项目No.2016025007 |
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| 摘 要： | 地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究一直是相关部门以及业界学者的研究热点，其预警可靠性问题也一直是研究的难点与技术核心，红河州是云南省地质灾害最为严重的地区之一，然而对于在红河州区域内的地质灾害气象预警却研究甚少.在云南省红河州示范区首次采用100 m×100 m的预警单元，综合考虑地质灾害的降雨诱发因子、地质环境因素，并基于信息量法构建地质灾害气象风险预警模型.该预警模型通过历史灾害事件回代验证，预警准确率可达81.8%.结果表明将气象因素与地质环境因素综合考虑纳入模型是可行的，是提高地质灾害气象预警水平的有效途径.
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| 关 键 词： | 降雨 地质灾害 气象风险预警 红河州 信息量法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-12-06 |
Rainfall-Induced Meteorological Early Warning of Geo-Hazards Model:Application to the Monitoring Demonstration Area in Honghe Prefecture,Yunnan Province |
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| Abstract: | The researching on geo-hazards risk indicator model has been the hot spot of related departments and scholars, indicating reliability problems have always been a research difficult point and technology core.Honghe prefecture is one of the most serious areas of geo-hazards in Yunnan Province, but little research about geo-hazards risk indicator has been done in this region.Based on the information value method, a geo-hazards indicator model about Honghe prefecture was established considering the rainfall-induced factors, hazard-formative environment of this region which is the first time using 100 m×100 m warning unit. Through the verification of historical geological hazard happening, the accuracy rate of warning can highly reach 81.8%. The result indicated that it's workable to integrate meteorological factors and geological environment factors into the indicator model which can be an effective way to improve the level of geo-hazard warning. |
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