| 基于灰色-进化神经网络的滑坡变形预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 高玮,冯夏庭.基于灰色-进化神经网络的滑坡变形预测研究[J].岩土力学,2004,25(4):514-517. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高玮 冯夏庭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉工业学院 土木工程系，湖北 武汉 430023；2.中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所 岩土力学重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430071 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(50309014)、国家基础研究发展规划(2002CB412708)及所领域前沿基金(Q000305)资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡变形位移预测对滑坡灾害治理具有重要的意义。考虑到滑坡位移单调增长的特殊性，根据位移分解原理，采用灰色系统提取位移趋势，用基于免疫进化规划的新型进化神经网络模型逼近位移偏差，从而提出了1种滑坡位移预测的新型智能方法。并用新滩滑坡的实测位移预测研究证明了所提智能预测方法的有效性及可行性
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 变形预测 灰色系统 进化神经网络 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7598-(2004)04-0514-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-01-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年1月13日 |
Study on displacement predication of landslide based on grey system and evolutionary neural network |
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| GAO Wei,FENG Xia-ting.Study on displacement predication of landslide based on grey system and evolutionary neural network[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2004,25(4):514-517. |
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| Authors: | GAO Wei FENG Xia-ting |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan 430023, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China |
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| Abstract: | Displacement predication of landslide is very important in control of landslide disaster. Considering the monotonously increasing character of the displacement time series of the landslide, a new intelligent prediction method combining grey system and evolutionary neural network (ENN) is proposed. In this method, based on the principles of displacement decomposition, the trend of displacement time series is extracted by grey system and the deviation of grey system is approximated by the ENN whose architecture and algorithm parameters evolve simultaneously through combining modified BP algorithm and immunized evolutionary programming proposed by first author. This new method is applied to Xintan landslide; and the results show that the generalization of the new method is good and it can predict the displacement of landslide very well. |
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| Keywords: | landslide displacement prediction grey system evolutionary neural network |
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