| 接入实时降雨数据的暴雨型洪涝灾害临灾预警方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜志强,王叁,张叶廷.接入实时降雨数据的暴雨型洪涝灾害临灾预警方法[J].地理信息世界,2017,24(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜志强 王叁 张叶廷 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430079;地球空间信息技术协同创新中心,湖北武汉430079;2. 武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉,430079 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，国家高分辨率对地观测系统应用系统(民用部分)建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对现有暴雨型洪涝灾害预警方法时效性差的问题,提出了一种接入实时降雨数据的暴雨型洪涝灾害临灾预警方法。根据时序分析模型由历史降雨数据和实时降雨数据分析识别异常降雨,并将异常降雨、地形起伏、高程和河网因素作为影响因子,构建暴雨型洪涝灾害风险指数,以"日"为时间尺度进行短时暴雨型洪涝灾害风险分析。从异常降雨致灾角度出发,根据降雨的异常程度将暴雨型洪涝灾害风险等级划分为无风险、低风险、中风险、中高风险和高风险5个等级,进而实现临灾预警,为防灾减灾提供一定的参考信息。以广东省清远市2014年5月的洪涝灾害为例,接入5月21日至5月26日期间逐日降雨量数据,实现了临灾风险分析。实验结果表明,六日内清远市阳山县中下区域发生暴雨洪涝灾害的风险较大,与实际灾情相吻合,达到了较好的预警效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 实时 暴雨型洪涝 灾害风险分析 临灾预警 时序分析 |
Temporary Precaution Method for Rainstorm-type Flood Disaster with Real-time Rainfall Data |
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| DU Zhiqiang,WANG San,ZHANG Yeting.Temporary Precaution Method for Rainstorm-type Flood Disaster with Real-time Rainfall Data[J].Geomatics World,2017,24(1). |
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| Authors: | DU Zhiqiang WANG San ZHANG Yeting |
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| Abstract: | This paper proposes a temporary pre-waming method of flash flood based on real-time rainfall data to solve the problem of poor timeliness of existing methods.With the factors of abnormal rainfall,terrain fluctuation,evation and river network,the paper builds a disaster risk index to analyze short term flash flood risk at the scale of day.The abnormal rainfall is identified by historical and real-time rainfall data according to the time series analysis model.From the perspective of abnormal rainfall causes disaster,the risk is divided into five levels,winch are no risk,low risk,medium risk,senior risk and ingh risk by the abnormal degree of rainfall,and they are meaningful to provide disaster warning and some reference information for disaster prevention and reduction.Taking the flash flood ocuured in Qingyuan city in Guangdong province in May,2014 as an example,and daily risk distribution maps between May 21st and May 26th are expressed.Experimental results suggest that the middle and lower part of Yangshan county in Qingyuan is in ingh risk of flash flood during the six days,and this method can provide a new technical way for temporary disasters warning. |
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| Keywords: | real-time flash flood disaster risk analysis temporary disaster warning time series analysis |
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