Relative roles of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in causing positive and negative global mean SST trends during the past 100 years |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China;2. International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA;3. National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China;1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;2. International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;3. Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;4. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;1. College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China;2. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2. Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;3. Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada;4. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Université Paris 06, Paris, France;5. National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100812, China;1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA;2. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA;1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China;2. International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA;3. CSRA, Monterey, CA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Global mean surface temperature (GMST) during 1910–2012 experienced four alternated rapid warming and warming hiatus phases. Such a temporal variation is primarily determined by global mean sea surface temperature (SST) component. The relative roles of ocean dynamic and thermodynamic processes in causing such global mean SST variations are investigated, using two methods. The first method is ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis. The budget diagnosis result shows that the thermodynamic processes dominate in the rapid warming phases, while the ocean dynamics dominate during the hiatus phases. The second method relies on the diagnosis of a simple equilibrium state model. This model captures well the horizontal distribution of SST difference between two warmer and cooler equilibrium states during either the rapid warming or hiatus phases. It is found that the SST difference during the rapid warming phases is primarily controlled by the increase of downward longwave radiation as both column integrated water vapor and CO2 increase during the phases. During the hiatus phases, the water vapor induced greenhouse effect offsets the CO2 effect, and the SST cooling tendency is primarily determined by the ocean dynamics over the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific. The SST pattern associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) might be responsible for the remote and local ocean dynamic responses through induced wind change. |
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| Keywords: | SST trends Natural variability Global warming |
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