| 近50年中国大陆冬季气温和区域环流的年代际变化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁苏洁,丁一汇,赵南,孙颖.近50年中国大陆冬季气温和区域环流的年代际变化研究[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):974-992. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁苏洁 丁一汇 赵南 孙颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京100081;中国科学院大学, 北京100049;国家气候中心, 北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973 计划）2012CB417205，国家自然科学基金资助项目41130960，公益性行业科研专项“第三次青藏高原大气科学试验—边界层—对流层综合观测”项目GYHY201406001，国家自然科学基金资助项目4117056，公益性行业（气象）科研专项201406042 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国大陆468 个站点1960～2013 年逐日气温资料，本文首先对中国冬季气温的年代际变化特征进行分析。通过气候跃变检验分析发现，中国冬季气温在整体变暖的趋势上叠加有年代际波动，可划分为冷期、暖期和停滞期三个时期。本文对比三个时期的冬季大气环流发现，冷/停滞期（暖）期西风环流减弱（增强）而东亚大槽增强（浅薄），槽后的辐合下沉增强（削弱），西伯利亚高压增强（减弱），这加强（削弱）了东亚冬季风，冷空气更多（少）侵入中国大陆地区，冬季气温偏低（高）。北半球环状模/北极涛动（Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode，NAM/Arctic Oscillation，AO）正是通过东亚冬季风系统对中国冬季气温，尤其是冬季最低气温有很强的年代际影响。太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation，PDO）与中国冬季气温在年代际上也有很好的正相关关系。进一步将PDO 的年代际变化分量作为背景，分析NAM/AO 和厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（El Nino Southern Oscillation，ENSO）不同配置下的东亚冬季风环流场可以发现，两者的配置作用不仅影响着中国冬季气温一致变化型的年代际波动，而且也可以影响到冬季气温南北反相振荡型的变化，这从一个方面解释了1980 年代和1990年代北方变暖较强及最近十年北方降温趋势较为明显的原因。
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| 关 键 词： | 冬季气温 东亚冬季风 北半球环状模/北极涛动(NAM/AO) 太平洋年代际振荡(PDO) |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/7/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/1/24 0:00:00 |
Analysis of the Interdecadal Changes of the Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over Mainland China and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics during 1960-2013 |
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| Liang Sujie,Ding Yihui,Zhao Nan and Sun Ying.Analysis of the Interdecadal Changes of the Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over Mainland China and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics during 1960-2013[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(5):974-992. |
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| Authors: | Liang Sujie Ding Yihui Zhao Nan and Sun Ying |
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| Institution: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;National Climate Center, Beijing 1000812.National Climate Center, Beijing 1000813.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the daily air surface temperature data of 468 meteorological observation stations in mainland China from 1960 to 2013, the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter temperature are analyzed. First, linear regression and regime shift detection methods are used to identify tendency and abrupt point. Winter temperature shows interdecadal variability superimposed on a long-term warming trend with the cold period from 1960-1961 to 1985-1986, the warm period from 1986-1987 to 2005-2006, and the hiatus period from 2006-2007 to 2012-2013.To examine the underlying mechanism for the formation of the three periods, the atmospheric circulation systems are compared by using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. It is found that the cold/hiatus (warm) period is characterized by weak (strong) zonal wind in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, strong (weak) East Asian Trough on the 500 hPa geopotential height field, strong (weak) downdraft after the trough, strong (weak) Siberian High, and enhanced (weakened) northeast surface wind over the Asian continent. These features provide favorable circulation conditions for cold (warm) winter in mainland China. Furthermore, by influencing the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO) affects the winter temperature, particularly the winter minimum temperature on the interdecadal timescale.Conversely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is positively correlated to the winter temperature on the interdecadal timescale. Subsequently, the results indicate that with the modulation of the interdecadal variability of the PDO, the combined effects of NAM/AO and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the first EOF mode (EOF1), which has an identical signal throughout China, and influences the second EOF mode (EOF2), which has a seesaw pattern between southern and northern China. In addition, the superimposition of EOF1 and EOF2 probably caused persistent warming winters in the 1980s and 1990s and may have been responsible for the significant cooling trend during the last seven years in northwestern and northeastern China. |
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| Keywords: | Winter temperature East Asian winter monsoon Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) |
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