| 最小二乘外推与ARIMA(P,1,0)组合模型在极移短期预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张昊,王琪洁,朱建军,张晓红.最小二乘外推与ARIMA(P,1,0)组合模型在极移短期预报中的应用[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2011,31(3):106-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张昊 王琪洁 朱建军 张晓红 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院测绘与国土信息工程系，长沙 410083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委员会与中国科学院天文联合基金(10878026); 中南大学研究生学位论文创新基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 将ARIMA（P,1,0）模型应用到极移随机性部分序列的预报中，提出了利用最小二乘外推与ARIMA（P,1,0）的组合模型来对整体极移序列进行短期预报。并与其他方法对极移1～5天的短期预报精度进行了对比，结果证明了该模型在极移短期预报上的有效性与优越性。
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| 关 键 词： | 极移 短期预报 最小二乘外推 ARIMA（P 0）模型 精度改善 |
APPLICATION OF COMBINATIONAL MODEL OF LEAST SQUARES EXTRAPOLATION AND ARIMA(P,1,0) IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF POLAR MOTION |
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| Zhang Hao,Wang Qijie,Zhu Jianjun,Zhang Xiaohong.APPLICATION OF COMBINATIONAL MODEL OF LEAST SQUARES EXTRAPOLATION AND ARIMA(P,1,0) IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF POLAR MOTION[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2011,31(3):106-109. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Hao Wang Qijie Zhu Jianjun Zhang Xiaohong |
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| Institution: | Department of Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 |
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| Abstract: | The necessity of the short-term prediction of polar motion and the current common prediction approach are discussed.ARIMA(P,1,0) is used in prediction of stochastic components in polar motion before,non a combinational model of least squares extrapolation and ARIMA(P,1,0) is given to forecast the polar motion from one to five day in the future.Through accuracy analysis,the efficiency and superiority of this model is proved. |
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| Keywords: | polar motion short-term prediction least squares extrapolation ARIMA(P 1 0) model accuracy improving |
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