Weather and seasonal climate prediction for flood planning in the Yangtze River Basin |
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| Authors: | Zhaohui Lin Jason K Levy Xingkui Xu Sixiong Zhao Jens Hartmann |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China;(2) Information and Computer Science, University of Hawaii, 96-045 Ala Ike Street, Pearl City, HI 96782, USA;(3) Institute for Applied Geosciences, Darmstadt University of Technology, Schnittspahnstrasse 9, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes the use of numerical weather and climate models for predicting severe rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze
River Basin (YRB) from several days to several months in advance. Such predictions are extremely valuable, allowing time for
proactive flood protection measures to be taken. Specifically, the dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II), developed
by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP), is applied to YRB rainfall prediction and flood
planning. IAP DCP-II employs ensemble prediction with dynamically conditioned perturbations to reduce the uncertainty associated
with seasonal climate prediction. IAP DCP-II was shown to successfully predict seasonal YRB summer flooding events based on
a 15-year (1980–1994) hindcast experiment and the real-time prediction of two summer flooding events (1999 and 2001). Finally,
challenges and opportunities for applying seasonal dynamical forecasting to flood management problems in the YRB are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Dynamical climate prediction Rainfall anomalies Flood risk |
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