Modeling the Effects of Future Outflow on the Abiotic Habitat of an Imperiled Estuarine Fish |
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| Authors: | Frederick Feyrer Ken Newman Matthew Nobriga Ted Sommer |
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| Institution: | (1) Applied Science Branch, US Bureau of Reclamation, 2800 Cottage Way, Sacramento, CA 95825, USA;(2) US Fish and Wildlife Service, 4001 North Wilson Way, Stockton, CA 95205, USA;(3) US Fish and Wildlife Service, Bay Delta Fish and Wildlife Office, 650 Capitol Mall, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA;(4) 321 12th Street, Davis, CA 95616, USA |
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| Abstract: | Future development and climate change pose potentially serious threats to estuarine fish populations around the world. We
examined how habitat suitability for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a state and federally protected species, might be affected by changes in outflow in the San Francisco Estuary due to future
development and climate change. Forty years of sampling data collected during fall from 1967 to 2008 were examined to define
abiotic habitat suitability for delta smelt as a function of salinity and water transparency, and to describe long-term trends
in habitat conditions. The annual habitat index we developed, which incorporated both quantity and quality of habitat, decreased
by 78% over the study period. Future habitat index values under seven different development and climate change scenarios,
representing a range of drier and wetter possibilities, were predicted using a model which related estuarine outflow to the
habitat index. The results suggested that each of the scenarios would generally lead to further declines in delta smelt habitat
across all water year types. Recovery targets for delta smelt will be difficult to attain if the modeled habitat conditions
are realized. |
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