Statistical Models of Temperature in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Under Climate-Change Scenarios and Ecological Implications |
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| Authors: | R Wayne Wagner Mark Stacey Larry R Brown Michael Dettinger |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 205 O’Brien Hall, Mail Code 1712, Berkeley, CA 94720-1720, USA;(2) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 665 Davis Hall, Mail Code 1710, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710, USA;(3) U.S. Geological Survey, Placer Hall, 6000 J Street, Sacramento, CA 95819-6129, USA;(4) U.S. Geological Survey, UC San Diego, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, USA |
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| Abstract: | Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem
through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast
water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well (R
2 values greater than 0.93 during verification periods) for all stations within the Delta and San Francisco Bay provided there
was at least 1 year of calibration data. To provide long-term projections of Delta water temperature, we forced the model
with downscaled data from climate scenarios. Based on these projections, the ecological implications for the delta smelt,
a key species, were assessed based on temperature thresholds. The model forecasts increases in the number of days above temperatures
causing high mortality (especially along the Sacramento River) and a shift in thermal conditions for spawning to earlier in
the year. |
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