Stochastic analysis of Lake Superior elevations for computation of relative crustal movement |
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| Authors: | GW Kite K Adamowski |
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| Institution: | 1. Water Management Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa Canada;2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa Canada |
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| Abstract: | Using Lake Superior mean monthly elevations as recorded at five gauges around the lake, time series of elevations and differences in elevations between pairs of gauges were analysed for trends, periodicities and autoregressive components. It was found that the variance of the time series of elevations consisted of 4–12% linear trends, 35–44% periodicities in the mean, 0.23–0.66% periodicities in the variance, a 43–54% autoregressive component and a 5% random component. On the other hand, the time series of differences in lake elevations were found to consist of 30–52% linear trends, 5–35% periodicities in the mean and variance, up to a 30% autoregressive component and a random component of 21–31%. Rates of crustal movement were computed from the trends in gauge differences. |
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