|
|||||
|
|
| 近50年来长江中下游汛期暴雨变化特征 | |
| 引用本文： | 卞洁,何金海,李双林.近50年来长江中下游汛期暴雨变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2012,17(1):68-80. |
| 作者姓名： | 卞洁 何金海 李双林 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029 2. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京,210044 3. 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京,100029 |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目“重大气象灾害综合风险评估研究”KZCX2-YW-Q03-08 |
| 摘 要： | 基于1960～2008年逐日降水观测资料,分析了长江中下游汛期暴雨的气候分布特征、年际、年代际变化以及趋势变化特征。结果表明,该区域汛期暴雨分布呈现南部多、向北递减的总格局。最大暴雨量中心位于江西北部,其形成可能与地形因素有关。在年际尺度上,该区域暴雨量、暴雨强度存有准两年及6～8年的周期变化特征;从年代际尺度看,在时间域上,存在12～14年的周期变化。具体地,汛期区域平均暴雨量、频次在1960年代至1980年代是一个相对平稳的时期,1990年代开始则进入一个高值期,21世纪以后又开始回落。相比较而言,暴雨强度的年代际变化不显著。在空间域上,进入21世纪后随着雨带向淮河流域推进,暴雨量、频次、强度在苏北、皖北增强。从趋势分析看来,过去50年汛期暴雨量、频次呈现较大范围的增加趋势。暴雨强度也表现一定程度的增加趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 长江中下游 汛期 暴雨 年际 年代际 趋势 |
Heavy Rain Variation Characteristics in Flood Seasons in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River in the Last 50 Years |
|
| BIAN Jie,HE Jinhai and LI Shuanglin.Heavy Rain Variation Characteristics in Flood Seasons in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River in the Last 50 Years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2012,17(1):68-80. | |
| Authors: | BIAN Jie HE Jinhai and LI Shuanglin |
| Institution: | 1 College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 |
| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation dataset archived in China Meteorology Administration during 1960-2008,interannual and decadal variations of heavy rain events in flood seasons in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as well as their trends are analysed.The results suggest that,on the interannual timescale,both the occurrence and intensity of heavy rain events display a variation with two types of periods,a quasi-biennial one and a nearly 6-8-year one.On the interdecadal timescale,a nearly 12-14-year period is revealed.Particularly,there was less occurrence during the period through the 1960s to the 1980s,which was followed by more occurrence in the 1990s.Since the beginning of the 21st century,the occurrence of the events is becoming less again,albeit an occurrence increases in the northern boundary of the region,i.e.,northern part of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces.The modest shift of heavy rain events to the north is in agreement with the northward shift of climatological seasonal rain band after the end of the 20th century,which was found recently.The trend analysis shows an increase in the occurrence of the events and the seasonal accumulated rainfall due to the events,albeit an insignificant decrease of the intensity of the events. |
| Keywords: | middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River flood season interannual and interdecadal variations long-term trend |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》下载免费的PDF全文 | |