Climatic trends in temperature,zonal flow,and stationary planetary waves from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data |
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| Authors: | A Yu Kanukhina L A Nechaeva E V Suvorova A I Pogorel’tsev |
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| Institution: | (1) Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinskii pr. 98, St. Petersburg, 195196, Russia |
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| Abstract: | A detailed analysis of climatic trends in the longitudinally averaged temperature, zonal wind velocity, and activity of a stationary planetary wave with the zonal wave number 1 (SPW1) is made for January. The results of analysis indicate that marked climatic temperature variations having opposite signs in the low and high latitudes are observed. These variations cause the relevant variations in the intensity and arrangement of maxima of tropospheric jet flows and, thereby, are responsible for changes in SPW1 propagation conditions. SPW1 propagation from the troposphere into the upper atmosphere is calculated with a linearized model by using the distributions of zonal mean flow that are characteristic of the 1960s and the early 21st century. These calculations indicate that, over the past 40 years, the propagation conditions have improved “on average” and the calculated SPW1 amplitude in the stratosphere and mesosphere of the winter hemisphere has increased substantially. Analysis of the amplitudes of the zonal wind velocity for SPW1 that were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR data is consistent with the results of simulation and shows that some enhancement of SPW1 activity in the lower stratosphere has been actually observed in recent years. These variations in the amplitudes are also accompanied by the enhancement of SPW1 interannual variability. |
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