| 关于中国能源战略的若干思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 栾维新,梁红伟.关于中国能源战略的若干思考[J].世界地理研究,2003,12(3):84-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 栾维新 梁红伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心
2. 大连市第十五中学,大连,116029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40271029) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析了全球石油、天然气、煤和铀等主要生化能源可采储量和年开采量的关系,结论认为：石油、天然气和铀枯竭的时限将在2040年,煤炭在2100年也将退出历史舞台。同时认为,上述生化能源是全球温室气体浓度增加、气候变暖的主要根源,也是国际地区冲突的重要原因。在全球生化能源枯竭的大背景下,我国主要生化能源的保障程度下降,石油的国际依存度提高,面临的国际能源形势日益严峻。作者认为,21世纪前20年是调整我国能源战略的最后机会,合理的能源战略将是保证2020年后我国经济社会持续健康发展的前提。建议根据生化能源特点及我国现状,通过采取一系列有效的措施,保证2020年前我国能源的安全供应;同时加强对“阳光经济”战略的研究,寻求2020年以后解决能源出路的长久性战略,为制定我国长期能源发展战略提供重要依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 能源战略 生化能源 阳光经济 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9479(2003)03-0084-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年3月31日 |
Rethinking of the Energy Development Strategy of China |
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| LUAN Wei-xin,LIANG Hong-wei.Rethinking of the Energy Development Strategy of China[J].World Regional Studies,2003,12(3):84-91. |
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| Authors: | LUAN Wei-xin LIANG Hong-wei |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between the exploitable quantity and annual exploitive quantity of the main global bio- chemical energy, such as petroleum, natural gas, coal and uranium, and draws the following conclusions: petroleum, natural gas and uranium will be depleted in 2040 with coal in 2100. Moreover bio- chemical energy is the main source leading to increare the green house gas density, global warming and also, international confliction. Against the big background of global bio - chemical energy depletion, however China' s indemnification of bio - chemical energy descends, with international stock of petroleum ascends and the situation of international energy is more and more serious. This paper thinks that the first 20 years of the 21st century is China's last opportunity to adjust its energy strategy, and a rational energy strategy will be the premise to guarantee its economic and socil development continenesly and healthily after 2020. It also suggests that its authority should take a series of measures to guarantee Chinese energy' s safe supply according to the characteristic of the bio - chemical energy and the situation of China, and at the same time, emphasize on the strategic study of the "sun - economy" to seek a long - run strategy to solve energy problems. This paper puts forward suggestions also in making China' s long - term energy strategy. |
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| Keywords: | bio-chemical energy sun-economy energy strategy |
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