Linked to Landscape: Assessing Urbanization in Germany through Landscape and Economic Factors |
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| Authors: | Rose Keller Colin Vance |
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| Institution: | 1. National Park Service, Denali National Park and University of Bremen;2. Jacobs University Bremen and RWI, Essen |
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| Abstract: | The ongoing encroachment of urban land into natural landscapes has resulted in the degradation of ecosystems throughout Europe. Understanding why the share of urban land has increased is important for managing urban growth and maintaining ecosystem services. We estimate a model of landscape change that integrates geospatial and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban growth observed in Germany between 2000 and 2006. In doing so, we test several determinants of urbanization identified by theoretical frameworks from landscape ecology and economics, including landscape pattern and transit infrastructure. The results show that despite planning guidelines and policies to promote dense development, urban growth has been extensive. Regions with a high degree of fragmented land and the prevalence of environmental amenities are characterized by particularly strong growth, pointing to challenges in crafting landscape policies that balance economic development with environmental conservation. |
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| Keywords: | environmental amenities fragmentation Germany satellite imagery spatial regression models urban land use change |
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