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Integrating global and regional analyses of the effects of climate change: A case study of land use in England and Wales |
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| Authors: | M L Parry J E Hossell P J Jones T Rehman R B Tranter J S Marsh C Rosenzweig G Fischer I G Carson R G H Bunce |
| Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, University College London, 26 Bedford Way, WC1H OAP London, UK;(2) Department of Geography, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT Birmingham, UK;(3) Centre for Agricultural Strategy, University of Reading, 1 Earley Gate, RG6 2AT Reading, UK;(4) Department of Agriculture, University of Reading, 1 Earley Gate, PO Box 236, RG6 2AT Reading, UK;(5) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York City, 10025 New York, USA;(6) IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;(7) Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Merlewood Research Station, LA11 6JU Grange-over-Sands, UK |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to exemplify a means by which an integrated assessment can be made of global and regional effects on land use of climate change. This is achieved by use of data on the effects of climate change on world food prices as inputs to a regional land use allocation model.Data on world prices are drawn from a recent global study of climate change and crop yields. In a case study of England and Wales a land allocation model is used to infer changes of land use that are the product of the integrated effect of climate-induced global price changes and climate-related changes of yield in England and Wales. This combination of changed prices and yield potential is used to calculate the land use providing the highest returns for each of 155,235 1 km2 cells of land in England and Wales for a future assumed for the year 2060 (without climate change) and then for that same environment with climate change. The difference between these two is then treated as an estimated effect resulting from climate change. |
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