| 青藏高原多年冻土热融灾害发展预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张中琼,吴青柏.青藏高原多年冻土热融灾害发展预测[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2012,42(2):454-461,484. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张中琼 吴青柏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所/冻土工程国家重点实验室,兰州,730000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院重要方向群项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-08);国家杰出青年基金项目(40625004) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 青藏高原多年冻土区是世界上中低纬度多年冻土面积最大的区域,气候变化引起青藏高原多年冻土区年平均地温上升、地下冰融化、多年冻土退化等问题。借助ARCGIS技术手段,通过地下冰计算模型和Stefan公式计算研究区不同气候变化情景模式下的地下冰体积含冰量和活动层厚度变化。结果表明:在未来几十年内多年冻土的分布范围将不会发生显著变化,多年冻土的主要退化形式为地下冰的消融、低温冻土向高温冻土转化;但本世纪末多年冻土将发生大范围的退化。这一过程将引起热融滑塌、热融沉陷等冻土热融灾害。将Nelson热融灾害风险性评价模式进行修正,对研究区灾害风险性进行评估区划。最大的危险区主要分布在西昆仑山南麓、青南山原中部、冈底斯山和念青唐古拉山南麓、喜马拉雅山南麓部分区域,在未来几十年内有加剧的趋势。
|
| 关 键 词： | 多年冻土 活动层 地下冰 热融灾害 区划 |
Thermal Hazards Prediction on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Permafrost Region |
| |
| Zhang Zhong-qiong
,
Wu Qing-bai.Thermal Hazards Prediction on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Permafrost Region[J].Journal of Jilin Unviersity:Earth Science Edition,2012,42(2):454-461,484. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhang Zhong-qiong Wu Qing-bai |
| |
| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering/Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Science,Lanzhou 730000,China |
| |
| Abstract: | Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region is the largest region in low latitude regions in the world.Climate warming could leads mean annual ground temperature to rise,the ground ice to melt and permafrost to degrade,and so on.By supporting of ARCGIS software the changes of ground ice content and active layer thickness are calculated by using ground ice model and Stefan equation under different climate change scenarios.The results show that: the distribution of permafrost will not have a significant change in the next few decades but a large-scale changes will take place at the end of this century.The main permafrost degradation types are the melting of ground ice and converted the low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost.The large-scale changes will accompany with the thermal hazards such as thermokarst and thermal slump.Thermal hazards are zoned on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost region according to the modified Nelson model.The greatest danger zone distributed in the south of the West Kunlun Mountains mainly,Middle of Qingnan Valley,and southern foot of Gangdise Mountains,Nyainqentanglha Mountains,and the Himalayas Mountains.Thermal hazards will be exacerbated in future several decades. |
| |
| Keywords: | permafrost active layer ground ice thermal hazards zoning |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
