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Climatic trends and impact of climate change on agriculture in an arid Andean valley |
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| Authors: | Melitta Fiebig-Wittmaack Orlando Astudillo Elaine Wheaton Virginia Wittrock César Perez Antonio Ibacache |
| Institution: | 1. Departamento de Matemática, Universidad de La Serena, Benavente 980, 1720170, La Serena, Chile 2. Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile 3. Saskatchewan Research Council and University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada 4. Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, Canada 5. Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC), Regina, Canada 6. Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (INIA), La Serena, Chile |
| Abstract: | Little is known about climate change and its impacts for the arid coastal and mountainous regions in northern Chile. The Elqui river basin, part of the Norte Chico of Chile between 27oS and 33oS latitude, is located south of the hyper-arid Atacama desert. Despite water scarcity, agricultural development in this region has been enhanced by agronomic practices and the marketing of valuable products. This paper characterizes the actual climate conditions and presents an overview and analyses of past climate variability, and future possible climate trends, emphasizing those relevant to agriculture. Precipitation shows an important decrease during the first decades of the past century. Runoff shows decreasing trends for the first half of the past century and increases for 1960 to 1985. Drought appears to be increasing. Statistical downscaling was accomplished using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator. Both future periods of 2011 to 2030 and 2046–65 showed trends to higher minimum and maximum temperature. The number of hot days (maximum temperature greater than or equal to 30°C) has a strong increasing trend during October to April. Even though the downscaled results for precipitation do not show trends, the continuation of the present trend of low amounts is a concern. We discuss some implications of climatic changes for agriculture and we emphasize the importance of adaptation, especially to deal with water scarcity. |
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