Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes |
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| Authors: | S Robbins C J Henney J W Harvey |
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| Institution: | (1) APS Department, UCB 391, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, U.S.A.;(2) National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719, U.S.A |
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| Abstract: | An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the
estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms
(e.g., Wang–Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic
synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single
coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated
with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and
September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for
its best 1-month period, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ∼0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single
estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition,
this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data. |
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