Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models |
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| Authors: | Yong Liu Donald Scavia |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA;(2) Present address: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, The Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; |
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| Abstract: | Recent studies of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia suggest higher susceptibility to hypoxia in years after the 1980s. We used two simple
mechanistic models and Bayesian estimation of their parameters and prediction uncertainty to explore the nature of this regime
shift. Model estimates show increasing nutrient conversion efficiency since the 1980s, with lower DO concentrations and large
hypoxic volumes as a result. In earlier work, we suggested a 35% reduction from the average 1980–1990 total nitrogen load
would restore the Bay to hypoxic volumes of the 1950s–1970s. With Bayesian inference, our model indicates that, if the physical
and biogeochemical processes prior to the 1980s resume, the 35% reduction would result in hypoxic volume averaging 2.7 km3 in a typical year, below the average hypoxic volume of 1950s–1970s. However, if the post-1980 processes persist the 35% reduction
would result in much higher hypoxic volume averaging 6.0 km3. Load reductions recommended in the 2003 agreement will likely meet dissolved oxygen attainment goals if the Bay functions
as it did prior to the 1980s; however, it may not reach those goals if current processes prevail. |
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