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Multi-technique Analysis of the Solar 10.7 cm Radio Flux Time-Series in Relation to Predictability |
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| Authors: | Oindrilla Ghosh Tanushree Ghosh T N Chatterjee |
| Institution: | 1. Seth Anandram Jaipuria College, Kolkata, 700 005, West Bengal, India 2. Maharaja Manindra Chandra College, Kolkata, 700 003, West Bengal, India 3. Dinabandhu Andrews College, Kolkata, 700 084, West Bengal, India |
| Abstract: | We studied the predictability of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux by using stationary and non-stationary time-series analysis techniques of fractal theory to find the correlation exponent, the spectral exponent, the Hurst exponent, and the fluctuation exponent of the time series. The Hurst exponent was determined, from which the fractal dimension and consequently the predictability was evaluated. The results suggest that stationary methods of analysis yield inconsistent result, that is, amongst the four techniques used, the values of the exponents show great disparity. While two of the techniques, namely the auto-correlation function analysis and the spectral analysis, indicate long-term positive correlation, the other two methods, specifically the Hurst rescaled range-analysis and the fluctuation analysis, clearly exhibit the anti-correlated nature of the time series. The two non-stationary methods, that is, the discrete wavelet transform and the centered moving-average analysis, yielded values of the Hurst exponent that are indicative of positive correlation, of persistent behavior, and also showed that the time series is predictable to a certain extent. |
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