| 黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 穆学青,郭向阳,明庆忠,胡程.黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素[J].地理学报,2022,77(3):714-735. |
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| 作者姓名： | 穆学青 郭向阳 明庆忠 胡程 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 2100232.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 2100233.贵州财经大学工商管理学院,贵阳 5500254.云南财经大学旅游文化产业研究院,昆明 650221 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41961021,41671147)~~； |
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| 摘 要： | 科学测度与审视旅游生态安全对促进黄河流域旅游经济和生态环境协调可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践价值。从流域可持续发展视角,基于DPSIR系统模型构建黄河流域旅游生态安全理论框架和指标体系,采用改进TOPSIS法、核密度曲线、空间自相关、传统和空间马尔可夫链及面板分位数回归方法对其动态演化特征和驱动因素进行探析。结果表明：① 时间上,旅游生态安全均值波动下降后上升,呈收敛趋势,且有向“双核”形态演变的趋势。空间上,旅游生态安全值整体较低（0~0.55）,由2008年以风险级为主（占89.04%）转变为2017年以风险级和恶化级为主（分别占60.27%和31.51%）,且仍存在较大下行转移风险。② 动态演化特征上,不考虑邻域条件下,旅游生态安全风险级、敏感级转移具有“路径依赖”与“自身锁定”效应。而恶化级、临界安全级保持初始状态概率较小,且类型转移通常发生在相邻等级递次转移。邻域背景在其动态变化过程中起着重要作用,且其动态演化特征具有显著时空异质性。③ 影响因素方面,环境污染对低层级单元的旅游生态安全负向抑制作用较为明显,旅游负荷水平对较高层级地区旅游生态安全的正向边际效应略大,而旅游发展水平、经济发展水平等变量则对较低等级单元旅游生态安全的正向边际效应较大。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游生态安全 动态演变特征 空间马尔科夫链 面板分位数回归 黄河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-12-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-08-31 |
Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin |
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| MU Xueqing,GUO Xiangyang,MING Qingzhong,HU Cheng.Dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors of tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2022,77(3):714-735. |
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| Authors: | MU Xueqing GUO Xiangyang MING Qingzhong HU Cheng |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China3. School of Business Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China4. Institute of Tourism and Cultural Industry, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China |
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| Abstract: | It is of great theoretical and practical importance to measure and examine tourism ecological security in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). The purpose of this study is to promote coordinated and sustainable development of the tourism economy and ecological environment. From the perspective of watershed sustainable development, this paper constructs the theoretical framework and index system of tourism ecological security in the YRB based on DPSIR system model, and analyzes its dynamic evolution characteristics and driving factors by using improved TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation, traditional and spatial Markov chains and quantile regression panel method. The results showed that: (1) There has been an evolutionary trend toward a dual-core form of tourism ecological security over time, as its average value fluctuates and then rises. The overall tourism ecological security level was relatively low (0-0.55), shifting from the predominant risk level in 2008 (accounting for 89.04%) to the levels of predominant risk and deterioration in 2017 (60.27% and 31.51%, respectively). A large downward risk remains. (2) In terms of dynamic evolution characteristics, the transfer of tourism ecological security risks and sensitive levels had "path dependence" and "self-locking" effects. In practice, however, the probability of maintaining the initial state of the deterioration level and the critical safety level was relatively small. And the type of transfer was usually accomplished during a subsequent level transfer. Its dynamic change process was strongly influenced by regional factors. Its characteristics of dynamic evolution were characterized by significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. (3) Tourism ecological safety was most significantly influenced by environmental pollution in lower-level units. The tourism load level had a greater positive marginal effect on higher-level areas; however, economic development and level of tourism development have a greater positive marginal effect on areas with lower ecological tourism security levels. |
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| Keywords: | tourism ecological security dynamic evolution characteristics spatial Markov chain panel quantile regression Yellow River Basin |
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