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A successfully stress-forecast earthquake |
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| Authors: | Stuart Crampin Theodora Volti & Ragnar Stefánsson |
| Institution: | Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Edinburgh, Grant Institute, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, UK. E-mail:;;, Scientific Advisor to the National Civil Defence Committee of Iceland, and Iceland Meteorological Office, Bustadavegur 9, 150 Reykjavik, Iceland. E-mail: |
| Abstract: | A M = 5 earthquake in Iceland has been successfully 'stress forecast' by using variations in time delays of seismic shear wave splitting to assess the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. Local investigations suggested the approximate location of the forecast earthquake. We report the criteria on which this stress forecast was based. |
| Keywords: | fracture criticality shear wave splitting stress forecasting |