| 应用灰色聚类分析作降水趋势预报的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯利华.应用灰色聚类分析作降水趋势预报的探讨[J].地域研究与开发,2003,22(1):10-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯利华 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学地理系,浙江,金华,321004 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省自然科学基金资助项目 ( 4 0 2 0 34) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章首次利用前期的预报因子进行计算，使灰色聚类分析具有了预报功能，其思路是把预报量和前期预报因子分为不同的等级，根据预报量计算等级与实际等级的历史拟合率达到最大的原则，在计算过程中，反复调整各因子的计算参数，最后得到历史拟合率最大时预报系统的等级分界值，并据此进行预报。其依据是相似的前期预报因子组合一航会出现相似的降水趋势，实例表明，其预报结果是比较好的。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水趋势预报 前期预报因子 灰色聚类分析 长期预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-2363(2003)01-0010-04 |
On Application of Grey Clustering Analysis in Forecast of Precipitation Tendency |
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| FENG Li-hua.On Application of Grey Clustering Analysis in Forecast of Precipitation Tendency[J].Areal Research and Development,2003,22(1):10-13. |
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| Authors: | FENG Li-hua |
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| Abstract: | Calculation by means of previous forecast factors can first make grey clustering analysis possess forecast function. Grading the forecast volume and previous forecast factors, according to the principle of maximizing historical conform ratio of calculated and actual grade of forecast volume, the calculation parameter of every factors is repeatedly readjusted in the calculated process, and the grade limit value of forecast system with maximizing historical conform ratio is finally attained. The precipitation tendency is forecasted by means of this thread of thought. Its basis is that combination of the similar previous forecast factors leads generally to the similar precipitation tendency. It is demonstrated that its forecast result relatively ideal. |
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| Keywords: | previous forecast factor grey clustering analysis precipitation tendency |
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