A model for assessing and managing the risks of environmental lead emissions |
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| Authors: | R M Maxwell W E Kastenberg |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Center for Nuclear and Toxic Waste Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720,;(2) Department of Nuclear Engineering, 4153 Etcheverry Hall, Center for Nuclear and Toxic Waste Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1730 Tel.: 510-643-0574 Fax: 510-643-9685 e-mail: kastenbe@nuc.berkeley.edu, |
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| Abstract: | In response to recent activity and legislation concerning lead and its role in electric vehicle development, a model has
been developed to assess the health risks to residents from environmental lead emissions. This model may be used to predict
the risks to residents in the vicinity of facilities discharging lead into the air. This model is also important for risk
management, allowing for risk-based regulations regarding limits on lead emissions. The model is comprehensive, linking together
a source term, air dispersion model, household exposure model, physiologically-based pharmakokinetic blood-lead model, and
a determination of reference dose. Parameters are treated as distributions, and are considered either uncertain or variable.
A range of physiological and behavioral parameters are used to distinguish between various age and gender groups, to reflect
the variability in risk of adverse effect to these subsets of the exposed population. A sensitivity study is performed, including
a case considering the uncertainty in reference dose which is compared to the case of a deterministic reference dose. Different
types of variability are investigated, the variability across sensitive sub-populations of age and gender, and the individual
variability within these populations. We found that the differentiation between uncertainty and variability in predicting
non-cancer risk human health risk was important, and that methods that combined uncertainty and variability were not expected
to be protective to sensitive individuals within a sub-population. |
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