| 基于EMD分析的山东省土地承载力的动力学预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张衍广,林振山,梁仁君.基于EMD分析的山东省土地承载力的动力学预测[J].地理科学,2008,28(2):219-223. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张衍广 林振山 梁仁君 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏 南京 210097 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40371044)、国家"211"工程二期重大项目资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法对1949年以来山东省耕地变化和粮食生产波动的周期进行分解,运用动力学建模方法对山东省未来20年耕地数量和粮食产量进行数值模拟和预测。结果表明:山东省粮食生产存在 3.5、7.5、10和20年左右的4个周期;山东省耕地面积存在9、12、35和57年左右的4个周期。山东省粮食生产量呈上升趋势,由于粮食种植占用土地比重过大,易引发生态问题。调整农业种植结构,缩减粮食种植比重,易引发粮食安全问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地承载力 EMD 动力学模型 预测 山东省 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0690(2008)02-0219-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年4月12日 |
EMD-based Prediction on Dynamics of Land Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province |
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| ZHANG Yan-Guang,LIN Zhen-Shan,LIANG Ren-Jun.EMD-based Prediction on Dynamics of Land Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2008,28(2):219-223. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yan-Guang LIN Zhen-Shan LIANG Ren-Jun |
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| Institution: | College of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210046 |
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| Abstract: | Land resources carrying capacity security is a very important issue which has a significant influence on the social stability of both a country and a region.Meanwhile,the fluctuation of grain output has a close relation with land resources carrying capacity security.Thereby,the researches on the periods,amplitudes and characteristics of the fluctuation of grain output and its causes are propitious to reduce the intensity of the fluctuation,to eliminate unfavorable factors,and further to keep the stability of grain output to insure land resources carrying capacity security.Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD) is a powerful method for analyzing the nonlinear and non-stationary time series.Therefore EMD method was introduced to study the fluctuation of grain production in Shandong Province,and the data have been decomposed into two imfs and a residual trend term.The conclusions are drawn: The fluctuations of grain output have 3.5-year,7.5-year,10-year and 20-year time scales.Shown from the residual trend term,the grain output has increased continually since 1949.By using dynamics modeling method,grain yields in future 20 years were simulated.Looking from the grain yield that the Shandong Province grain productivity assumes the trend of escalation and according to the existing farming inventory and the historical trend of development that there is not the grain short problem in Shandong Province.But we cannot depend upon the expansion of sown area to increase the grain yield,to guard against the initiation ecological questions. |
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| Keywords: | land carrying capacity EMD dynamics modeling prediction Shandong Province |
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