| 基于大气降水的华北地区土壤湿度预测模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王珊珊,韩丽娟,崔恒建,杨华.基于大气降水的华北地区土壤湿度预测模型[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(4):445-452. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王珊珊 韩丽娟 崔恒建 杨华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.北京师范大学数学科学学院，北京 100875 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106027),十一五科技支撑项目(2006BAD04B04),国家自然科学基金项目(40901170) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于引入随机变量的机理性模型方法，利用华北地区2000—2008年气象台站观测数据，以大气降水为随机变量，并考虑其延迟效应，利用回归方法建立了预测时效为1旬的土壤相对湿度预测模型。利用预测率和干旱等级预报精度两个评价指标，结合2009年土壤湿度实际观测数据，验证了预测模型预报率均在90%以上，绝大部分站点的干旱等级预报精度均在70%以上，得出该预测模型在华北地区应用的合理性，从而建立了一套客观、动态的土壤湿度预测方法，有利于及时掌握农田旱情程度和分布，主动采取防旱、抗旱应对措施。
|
| 关 键 词： | 土壤湿度 土壤蓄水饱和度 降水延迟效应 非线性回归方程 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-09-27 |
The Soil Moisture Predictive Model Based on the Precipitation in North China |
| |
| Wang Shanshan,Han Lijuan,Cui Hengjian and Yang Hua.The Soil Moisture Predictive Model Based on the Precipitation in North China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2011,22(4):445-452. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Shanshan Han Lijuan Cui Hengjian and Yang Hua |
| |
| Institution: | 1.School of Mathematics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 1008752.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 1000813.State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University and the IRSA, CAS, Beijing Key Laboratory for Remote Sensing of Environment and Digital Cities, School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 |
| |
| Abstract: | A better soil moisture predictive model for North China can enhance the accuracy of drought forecast, which will have great significance in predicting the extent and distribution of drought,playing an important role in taking positive and active measures for drought in time.It is well acknowledged that one of the key points and difficult points in research on dry farming is the change of soil moisture,which is influenced by various factors,such as rainfall,evaporation,the time of sunshine,the kind and textu... |
| |
| Keywords: | soil moisture soil water storage saturation precipitation delay effect non-linearity regression |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《应用气象学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
