Wind Speed and Altitude Dependent AMDAR Observational Error and Its Impacts on Data Assimilation and Forecasting |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yao-deng ZHOU Bing-jun CHEN Min and WANG Yuan-bing |
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| Institution: | 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/ Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, NUIST, Nanjing 210044 China; 2. Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089 China |
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| Abstract: | Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) observations have been widely used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) because of its high spatiotemporal resolution. The observational error of AMDAR is influenced by aircraft flight altitude and atmospheric condition. In this study, the wind speed and altitude dependent observational error of AMDAR is estimated. The statistical results show that the temperature and the observational error in wind speeds slightly decrease as altitude increases, and the observational error in wind speed increases as wind speed increases. Pseudo single AMDAR observation assimilation tests demonstrate that the wind speed and altitude dependent observational error can provide more reasonable analysis increment. Furthermore, to assess the performance of wind speed and altitude dependent observational error on data assimilation and forecasting, two-month 3-hourly cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and its Data Assimilation system (WRFDA) are performed for the period during 1 September-31 October, 2017. The results of the two-month 3-hourly cycling experiments indicate that new observational error improves analysis and forecast of wind field and geo-potential height, and has slight improvements on temperature. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) of the 6-h accumulated precipitation shows that new wind speed and altitude dependent observational error leads to better precipitation forecast skill than the default observational error in the WRFDA does. |
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| Keywords: | numerical weather prediction data assimilation AMDAR observational error variational assimilation |
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