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Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system. Part II: boreal winter and spring seasons |
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| Authors: | Haiqin Li Vasubandhu Misra |
| Institution: | 1. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 RM Johnson Bldg., Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, USA 2. Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, P.O. Box 3064520, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-4520, USA 3. Florida Climate Institute, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 RM Johnson Bldg., Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, USA |
| Abstract: | We examine the Florida Climate Institute–Florida State University Seasonal Hindcast (FISH50) skill at a relatively high (50 km grid) resolution two tiered Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) for boreal winter and spring seasons at zero and one season lead respectively. The AGCM in FISH50 is forced with bias corrected forecast sea surface temperature averaged from two dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere models. The comparison of the hindcast skills of precipitation and surface temperature from FISH50 with the coupled ocean–atmosphere models reveals that the probabilistic skill is nearly comparable in the two types of forecast systems (with some improvements in FISH50 outside of the global tropics). Furthermore the drop in skill in going from zero lead (boreal winter) to one season lead (boreal spring) is also similar in FISH50 and the coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Both the forecast systems also show that surface temperature hindcasts have more skill than the precipitation hindcasts and that land based precipitation hindcasts have slightly lower skill than the corresponding hindcasts over the ocean. |
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