| 雷电监测预警预报技术简述 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘维成,陶健红,邵爱梅,郑新.雷电监测预警预报技术简述[J].甘肃气象,2014(3):446-453. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘维成 陶健红 邵爱梅 郑新 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]兰州中心气象台,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020 [4]甘肃省防雷中心,甘肃兰州730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用面上项目（CMAGJ2013Z09）;预报员专项（CMAYBY2012-063）;甘肃省气象局气象科研项目（2013-09）共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 从监测、预警和预报3个方面介绍了雷电研究的技术方法,目前国内外最新面向业务应用的研究表明:不同技术共存的多源化观测设备,有效地提高了雷电探测效率;以天气形势分型为主的雷电潜势预报,其预报结果具有很大的不确定性,且其预报精细化程度不够,引入适合本地的物理量参数实现对其结果校准,可以有效地提高雷电潜势预报的准确率;随着数值模式预报向全球化、精细化的发展,基于数值模式的雷电潜势预报是未来的一个重点发展方向;建立在多种高观测频次资料融合和有效外推基础上的临近预报,可提高雷电活动预警预报的准确性,大幅提高雷电预警的提前时间。
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| 关 键 词： | 雷电 监测预警预报 进展 |
Advances in Study of Lightning Monitoring,Warning and Forecasting Technology |
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| LIU Weicheng,TAO Jianhong,SHAO Aimei,ZHENG Xin.Advances in Study of Lightning Monitoring,Warning and Forecasting Technology[J].Gansu Meteorology,2014(3):446-453. |
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| Authors: | LIU Weicheng TAO Jianhong SHAO Aimei ZHENG Xin |
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| Institution: | 1. Lanzhou Meteorological Observatory Center, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China ; 3. Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China; 4. Lightning Protection Centre of Gansu Province ,Lanzhou 730020, China) |
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| Abstract: | The methods about lightning study from three aspects of monitoring,warning and forecasting were introduced in this article.Currently,the latest researches aiming at operation application at home and abroad showed that the coexistence of multi sources of lightning observation equipments had improved the efficiency of lightning detection. The accuracy rate of potential prediction for lightning which based on combining weather situation classification with results calibration by using appropriate local physical quantity parameters,was higher than that of the lightning prediction only according to the former,which led to significant uncertainty and low elaborate forecast. With development of numerical model forecast to globalization and fine direction,potential prediction for lightning which based on numerical model was the major direction in the future. On the basis of a variety of high observation frequency data and effective extrapolation,nowcasting can be improved not only the accuracy of lightning warning but also the predicted time significantly. |
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| Keywords: | lightning monitoring warning and forecasting advances |
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